What Will Africa Look Like In The Next 10 Years?
Exactly 10 years ago, this weekend, I turned 21. My friends and I had one of those epic birthdays that 21-year-olds have — full of cheap booze, loud music, and as many people that could fit in the house. I was full of energy, hope, and naiveté that bordered on plain stupidity. This weekend, I had one of those birthdays 31-year-olds have; a quiet weekend filled with sleep, watching horror films with my 9-year-old daughter, and several good meals paired with a decent bottle of wine. I am still full of energy and hope but I am no longer so naive.
Ten years ago, I did not know that I’d be watching horror films with my 9-year- old daughter. I also would never have imagined that my ‘mulika mwizi’ (feature phone) — that I only retired recently, would be nearly obsolete to function efficiently in this world. I would have scoffed at the notion that driverless cars would be in production and that Donald Trump would be president of the USA. Ten years ago, I would never have imagined that the UKAY shopping mall would be demolished by a Kenya Government institution because it was on riparian land.
I wondered what should I expect for this same weekend in 10 years when I turn 41? Will we finally have flying cars? Or will I be able to teleport into a different city in seconds? Below are some of my predictions for the next 10 years in Kenya and Africa. As usual, these are based on my experience in my field of financial technology and FINTECH.
1. Smartphones and Internet will be free — As we get to peak penetration of both smartphones and internet in most markets in Africa, platform owners will partner with internet providers and smartphone manufacturers to give free quality smartphones and internet to allow users to have access to services that these users will be paying for. The revenue a user will generate per year from a multitude of services on these platforms will more than cover the cost of the phone and internet service.
2. University Education will be redesigned — The current education system is designed to get students to be able to understand basic concepts in the first degree and then specialize in the second and third degree. In the next 10 years, the specialization will be necessary from the first degree as the differentiating factor in the economy will be one’s ability to understand more and more about one thing that no-one else knows about.
3. Religion, as we know it today, will be obsolete — This will be true particularly in Africa, where the baby boomer and gen-y generations are completely beholden to some form of religion, while the millennial is increasingly becoming less and less religious as technology has given them an opportunity to question and research the root of these religions and come up with answers that are not satisfactory. The West and particularly in Europe has seen the numbers of religious dwindle and in some countries like France, there are just as many who people identify as atheist as those from mainstream religions. In Africa, where more than 60% of the population is under 30 years old, this change will feel like it happened overnight.
4. The largest retail bank will not be a bank — Banking will never die. Banks are core to the success of capitalism. However, the act of accessing banking services may not necessarily be done through a bank but an intermediary who will design an experience that banks and users will both plug into. However, I must say, having observed the current landscape in Kenya in particular, there might be an anomaly in East Africa as we have some of the most innovative bankers. Equity Bank and CBA Bank are the bank to watch and partner with. They are tinkering, taking risks, and trying new things in a way that no other bank is doing.
5. The most modern city of the 21st Century will be birthed in East or Southern Africa — Somewhere in East or Southern Africa, a leader will realize that with the advent of new technologies and newly found wealth, that we do not have to follow old colonial laws or designs for cities and towns, but we can take chances on building using new technologies with the modern African in mind and the result will be a ‘Wakanda-Esque’ city. The number of African diasporas designing cities and towns in the west will surprise you. Our very own Anyang’ Nyongo was part of a team set up by the legendary Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore in the 80’s to come up with a strategic plan for Singapore. We have the talent, space and soon we will have the courage to do it!
6. A top bank, a top manufacturer and at least 10 listed companies will not exist — Did you think Nakumatt and Chase Bank wouldn’t be here today? Several companies that are listed on the stock exchange have not made any capital investment in years, have too much senior debt, and have archaic business models. On the flip side, with the increased interest in Africa, some will be absorbed by larger behemoths that want market access. A good example of this in the last 10 years is CFC being acquired by Standard Bank.
7. The African entrepreneur will come of age- I predict that the world will be shocked by the tenacity and grit of the African entrepreneur. This entrepreneur has been selling to their fellow African for years and has been surviving. Technology and platforms will allow these entrepreneurs to scale and will not only achieve financial freedom but create lots and lots of wealth. These entrepreneurs could be reading this right now.
I would love to hear your feedback or debate some of these — how do you think the World as we know it will change in the next 10 years?
